SJS beat WPG 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.7, SJS 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored on the power play at 1:07 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 54% to 100%. James Reimer saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:54 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Timo Meier, Alexander Barabanov | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 16:48 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–1 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 1:07 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns | 1–2 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.62 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 5:24 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 15:43 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:12 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 7:14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 8:59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:38 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 13:36 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:36 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:50 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 21:48 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:21 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 21:08 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 22:38 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:14 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:54 | −0.43 | −0.15 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 20:18 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:07 | +0.72 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 22:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.14 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 22:00 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.12 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Santeri Hatakka D | 16:21 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 29:04 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 13:42 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 15:58 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:33 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 13:24 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 16:43 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Merkley D | 16:11 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 11:10 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 14:21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:43 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Merkley R | 11:11 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 11:06 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:32 | −0.35 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:06 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:07 | +1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.