SEA beat MIN 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.7, SEA 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Haydn Fleury scored at 7:33 of the second, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Cam Talbot saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:27 |  MIN | Ryan Hartman from Kirill Kaprizov, Marcus Foligno | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:23 | SEA | Haydn Fleury from Jaden Schwartz, Joonas Donskoi | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 7:33 | SEA | Haydn Fleury from Ryan Donato | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 19:00 | SEA | Brandon TanevEN from Yanni Gourde | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:52 | SEA | Mark GiordanoEN from Riley Sheahan | 1–4 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:51 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.23 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:09 | +0.38 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:09 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:29 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 20:31 | +0.03 | +0.27 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:57 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 13:32 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 8:42 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 10:33 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 18:49 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:43 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:37 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 25:05 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:47 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:54 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.23 | −0.58 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:25 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Lizotte D | 14:43 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:44 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 58:20 | +1.61 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:11 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.13 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 14:45 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 18:42 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:36 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:16 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 18:50 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:46 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:36 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 14:33 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 11:25 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 10:09 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:37 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:11 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:16 | −0.20 | +0.14 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:45 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:17 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 7:35 | −0.36 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 22:00 | 1 | −0.87 | −0.11 | −0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.