BUF beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Asplund scored at 4:16 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anthony Stolarz allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:03 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Kyle Okposo, Mark Pysyk | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:24 | BUF | Rasmus AsplundPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 6:01 | BUF | Arttu Ruotsalainen from Anders Bjork, Vinnie Hinostroza | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 7:46 | ANA | Troy Terry from Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler | 3–1 | 5% → 17% |
| P2 16:31 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Jakob Silfverberg, Isac Lundeström | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 5:59 | ANA | Simon Benoit from Kevin Shattenkirk | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 4:16 | BUF | Rasmus Asplund from Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Asplund C | 17:55 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.06 | +1.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.07 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.03 | +0.56 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 15:40 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 13:10 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:10 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 18:36 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:26 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 20:16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:03 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:03 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 20:24 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 21:42 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 19:31 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 15:22 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 10:00 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:02 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:06 | −0.44 | −0.12 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 64:16 | +0.54 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Benoit D | 14:05 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.03 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 17:52 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 8:36 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 17:18 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:57 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:37 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:21 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.22 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 25:43 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:10 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 17:33 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 13:31 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 18:41 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Groulx C | 8:08 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:12 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:35 | −0.33 | +0.20 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 64:16 | −1.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.