TOR beat CHI 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 2.6, CHI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored at 1:58 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jack Campbell saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:44 | CHI | Kirby DachPP from Philipp Kurashev, Seth Jones | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 11:48 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Seth Jones | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 6:14 | TOR | John Tavares from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P3 12:31 | TOR | David Kampf from Rasmus Sandin, Ondrej Kase | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 1:58 | TOR | William Nylander from Auston Matthews | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Kampf C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.12 | +0.78 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:49 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 22:10 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.23 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 14:50 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 7:32 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 13:26 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:26 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:14 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 9:34 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:51 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 9:53 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 21:06 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:02 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:03 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:16 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:31 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:02 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.07 | −0.62 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 61:58 | +1.41 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:17 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.07 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.11 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 16:22 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:17 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 12:24 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:03 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 23:35 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 11:08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 23:40 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 8:09 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 12:54 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:25 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 20:22 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:18 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 28:11 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.26 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 12:27 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 16:47 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 9:56 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.10 | −0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 61:58 | +0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.