WPG beat ANA 4–3. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers scored at 18:59 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 50% to 95%. John Gibson allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:07 |  WPG | Evgeny Svechnikov from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:04 | ANA | Sonny Milano from Trevor Zegras | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 1:39 | ANA | Josh Manson from Isac Lundeström, Troy Terry | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:24 | WPG | Andrew Copp from Paul Stastny, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 12:15 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Sonny Milano | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 18:40 | WPG | Nikolaj EhlersPP from Andrew Copp | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 18:59 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp | 4–3 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:23 | 2 | 1 | +1.71 | +0.07 | +1.62 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:52 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Dominic Toninato C | 10:04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 9:25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 21:04 | 1 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 15:18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 21:33 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 12:12 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:55 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:37 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:03 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 14:50 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 14:41 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 7:51 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 16:56 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 19:07 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:38 | +0.23 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Manson D | 16:43 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.93 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 14:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.05 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.07 | +0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.08 |
| Sam Carrick C | 9:51 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 19:05 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:36 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 9:18 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:55 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 14:41 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:29 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 17:13 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:38 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 20:20 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:14 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 14:41 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 16:16 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:03 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:10 | −1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.