WSH beat OTT 7–5. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Ovechkin scored at 16:27 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:26 | OTT | Drake Batherson unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:26 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Trevor van Riemsdyk | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 11:10 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Anthony Mantha, Connor McMichael | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:37 | WSH | Nick Jensen from Dmitry Orlov, Conor Sheary | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 15:43 | WSH | John Carlson from Lars Eller, Martin Fehérváry | 4–1 | 79% → 92% |
| P2 5:57 | OTT | Josh Norris from Artem Zub, Drake Batherson | 4–2 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 9:37 | OTT | Chris TierneyPP from Tyler Ennis, Thomas Chabot | 4–3 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 11:16 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Brady Tkachuk | 4–4 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:27 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin unassisted | 5–4 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 19:52 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Connor McMichael | 6–4 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 6:32 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot | 6–5 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 10:46 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Tom Wilson | 7–5 | 82% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:27 | 3 | +2.53 | −0.04 | +2.57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:34 | 2 | +1.31 | +0.03 | +1.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 22:15 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.82 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.09 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:11 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:39 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 14:01 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 7:42 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:41 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:28 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 11:28 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:11 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 7:46 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:00 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:44 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:58 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:16 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | −0.92 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 20:20 | 3 | 1 | +2.59 | +0.07 | +2.51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Tierney C | 14:09 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.13 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Josh Norris C | 21:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.72 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Artem Zub D | 27:43 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 20:12 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Shaw R | 7:46 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:59 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.43 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 9:03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 18:51 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 10:57 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 10:27 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 18:41 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 18:38 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:48 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 6:09 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 12:08 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:27 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.07 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Paul L | 19:51 | −0.72 | −0.03 | −0.66 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 41:12 | −1.54 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 15:43 | −3.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.