CGY beat WSH 4–3 in overtime. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Lindholm scored at 2:46 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:27 | CGY | Andrew MangiapanePP from Milan Lucic, Noah Hanifin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:59 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Johnny Gaudreau | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 17:18 | CGY | Elias LindholmSH unassisted | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P2 2:55 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovSH unassisted | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 7:48 | WSH | Martin Fehérváry from Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 18:03 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin unassisted | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| OT 2:46 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Johnny Gaudreau, Dan Vladar | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:33 | 3 | +2.19 | +0.18 | +2.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:25 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:45 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 15:41 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:28 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:29 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 10:55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 23:11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 18:39 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:15 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:59 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 14:22 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:59 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 7:42 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 12:42 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 14:17 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 14:39 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 13:17 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 62:46 | −0.27 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:37 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.21 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.10 | +0.68 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:30 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 21:10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:33 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:31 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 9:19 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 17:19 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:16 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 15:13 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:30 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:40 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:50 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:21 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:44 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:47 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 13:00 | −0.57 | +0.15 | −0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 42:46 | +0.28 |
| Vitek Vanecek G | 20:00 | −1.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.