NYR beat OTT 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.4, OTT 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Barclay Goodrow scored at 17:57 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Matt Murray saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:41 |  OTT | Nick Paul from Tim Stützle, Connor Brown | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 1:04 | OTT | Josh Norris unassisted | 0–2 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 14:37 |  NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad | 1–2 | 2% → 12% |
| P3 15:52 | NYR | Ryan Lindgren from Adam Fox, Chris Kreider | 2–2 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 17:57 | NYR | Barclay Goodrow from Sammy Blais, Jacob Trouba | 3–2 | 50% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay Goodrow C | 16:40 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:41 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 13:02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 13:19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:11 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 8:49 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 18:53 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:38 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 12:25 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 19:35 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 7:37 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 20:22 | 1 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +0.31 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Paul L | 18:21 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 18:33 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.44 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 15:03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 13:54 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 11:28 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 10:24 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 17:33 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 14:50 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:02 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 16:17 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 24:34 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Shaw R | 8:41 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 10:10 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:02 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:26 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 20:16 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 22:51 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 54:17 | +1.20 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 4:16 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.