MIN beat WPG 6–5 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek scored on the power play at 3:30 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Cam Talbot allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:48 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Andrew Copp, Mark Scheifele | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:41 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Mathew Dumba, Kirill Kaprizov | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:17 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Andrew Copp | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 18:40 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:49 | WPG | Josh MorrisseyPP from Paul Stastny, Neal Pionk | 3–2 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 16:59 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Alex Goligoski | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:19 | WPG | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt | 4–3 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 6:37 | WPG | Andrew Copp from Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk | 5–3 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 15:02 | MIN | Marcus FolignoPP from Alex Goligoski, Frederick Gaudreau | 5–4 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:01 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:30 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala | 5–6 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 23:54 | 2 | 1 | +1.30 | −0.08 | +1.41 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Copp C | 22:11 | 1 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.37 | −0.01 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:44 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.17 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 13:01 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 25:18 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 15:44 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 4:00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 6:07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 10:37 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 13:55 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:15 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 19:51 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:43 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 12:57 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:05 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:46 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 63:20 | −1.72 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:29 | 3 | +2.20 | +0.01 | +1.87 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.13 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:36 | 2 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.10 | +1.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.05 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 26:26 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 8:24 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 12:54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 13:13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:21 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:17 | 3 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.22 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:52 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 8:13 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 22:28 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 25:37 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.28 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:22 | −0.51 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 61:46 | −2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.