NJD beat SEA 4–2. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dawson Mercer scored at 5:02 of the first, moving NJD’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Joey Daccord saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:02 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Tomas Tatar, Ryan Graves | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:42 | NJD | Damon Severson from Jack Hughes, Ryan Graves | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 10:05 | SEA | Riley Sheahan from Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 14:48 | NJD | Jimmy Vesey from Andreas Johnsson, Colton White | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 14:41 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Mark Giordano, Yanni Gourde | 2–3 | 3% → 13% |
| P3 19:40 | NJD | Pavel ZachaEN from Michael McLeod, Nico Hischier | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:15 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:04 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.14 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:32 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 11:22 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 22:25 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 12:58 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 16:37 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 22:23 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:55 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:51 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 16:00 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 25:00 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 23:07 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:35 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:34 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 8:53 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:29 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 19:17 | −0.59 | −0.11 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 58:32 | +1.19 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:01 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 12:07 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Damon Severson D | 17:05 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.16 | +0.56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 24:52 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 20:06 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Geertsen L | 3:07 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 16:01 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 22:27 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 22:45 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 7:42 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton White D | 11:12 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 15:54 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 11:44 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 19:35 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:58 | −0.34 | +0.14 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:30 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:28 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.57 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:41 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.18 | −0.62 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 60:00 | +0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.