STL beat ARI 7–4. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jordan Kyrou scored at 12:46 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Carter Hutton allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:26 | ARI | Clayton KellerPP from Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 7:05 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:58 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 11:10 | STL | Justin FaulkPP from Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Bozak | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:46 | STL | Jordan Kyrou unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:40 | STL | Klim Kostin from Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk | 4–2 | 70% → 87% |
| P2 15:27 | STL | Klim Kostin from Jake Neighbours, Robert Bortuzzo | 5–2 | 87% → 96% |
| P2 16:17 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Ryan O'Reilly, Jake Walman | 6–2 | 97% → 99% |
| P3 5:25 | ARI | Christian Fischer from Clayton Keller, Shayne Gostisbehere | 6–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 8:23 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Ilya Lyubushkin, Loui Eriksson | 6–4 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 12:25 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko | 7–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:06 | 2 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.17 | +1.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Klim Kostin C | 10:59 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.06 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 4:23 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.09 | +0.88 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.16 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:22 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.08 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 11:04 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 15:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:30 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 17:09 | 2 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:41 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 22:06 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:25 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 15:48 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Torey Krug D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:26 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −1.13 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fischer R | 12:36 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.62 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Travis Boyd C | 10:43 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:45 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 19:21 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 22:16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 18:36 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 13:07 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 14:23 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:35 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 16:08 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 11:12 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:30 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 14:05 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 16:53 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:43 | 3 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:56 | −0.68 | +0.00 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:00 | −0.78 | +0.05 | −0.79 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 23:43 | −0.21 |
| Carter Hutton G | 36:17 | −3.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.