FLA beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carter Verhaeghe scored at 1:37 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:17 |  FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Aleksander Barkov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:57 | FLA | Anthony Duclair from Frank Vatrano, Gustav Forsling | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 11:45 |  PIT | Danton HeinenPP from Dominik Simon, John Marino | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 18:58 | PIT | Jeff CarterPP from Kasperi Kapanen, Kris Letang | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 8:01 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Jeff Carter, Kris Letang | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 8:31 | PIT | Evan Rodrigues from Jason Zucker, Mark Friedman | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 13:29 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad unassisted | 4–3 | 2% → 16% |
| P3 15:07 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad from Owen Tippett, Jonathan Huberdeau | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 1:37 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:42 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.43 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 12:36 | +0.65 | +0.38 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:51 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.02 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Friedman D | 10:49 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 22:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.52 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 15:17 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:20 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:22 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 11:16 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 8:36 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:06 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.48 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 23:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:09 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:25 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:15 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:10 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 14:02 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 28:06 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:55 | −1.60 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:56 | 2 | +1.84 | −0.08 | +1.52 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:57 | 2 | +1.29 | +0.00 | +1.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:19 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Kiersted D | 9:22 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 10:00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:31 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 16:18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 26:55 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.14 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 15:38 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 9:48 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 10:07 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:29 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 9:15 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:32 | −0.44 | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:14 | −0.44 | −0.35 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.25 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 18:49 | −0.74 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:23 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.53 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:19 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.