MIN beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Rask scored at 2:46 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ryan Miller allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:02 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Joshua Mahura, Josh Manson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:32 | MIN | Jared SpurgeonPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 15:05 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:56 | MIN | Nick Bonino from Nico Sturm | 1–3 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 2:18 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Maxime Comtois, Jamie Drysdale | 2–3 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 19:34 | ANA | Maxime ComtoisPP from Rickard Rakell, Troy Terry | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 2:46 | MIN | Victor Rask from Mathew Dumba, Mats Zuccarello | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 18:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Larsson D | 15:26 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 16:19 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 11:06 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Volkov R | 12:33 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:54 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:22 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 19:57 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:26 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 27:06 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 18:51 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 16:20 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 25:38 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 13:27 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:01 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.07 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 61:48 | −1.34 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 15:24 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.14 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:55 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.08 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 20:51 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 15:23 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:52 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:19 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 19:10 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:00 | +0.07 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 10:18 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:59 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:29 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:12 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:02 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:56 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:35 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:09 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:09 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:35 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.06 | −0.69 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 62:46 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.