ARI beat SJS 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (ARI 2.9, SJS 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Phil Kessel scored at 4:53 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:47 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Tomas Hertl | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:30 | SJS | Timo Meier from Ivan Chekhovich | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:59 | ARI | Victor Soderstrom from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:14 | ARI | Conor GarlandPP from Jakob Chychrun | 2–2 | 31% → 48% |
| P3 4:53 | ARI | Phil Kessel from Christian Dvorak, Alex Goligoski | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 9:57 | ARI | Michael Bunting from Conor Garland | 4–2 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 19:59 | ARI | Jan JenikEN from Derick Brassard, Phil Kessel | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Soderstrom D | 17:21 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.12 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 18:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.90 | +0.13 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Phil Kessel R | 16:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.17 | +0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:11 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:46 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Jenik C | 13:08 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 15:02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Demers D | 17:42 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 14:18 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 11:11 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 13:06 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 14:27 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Chaput C | 12:07 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:51 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.15 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +0.99 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:29 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:42 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 21:50 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:11 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander True C | 9:39 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 15:23 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 14:14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brinson Pasichnuk D | 10:06 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 4:44 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:10 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 18:33 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:59 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Chekhovich L | 10:36 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:33 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 16:48 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 14:15 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 21:00 | −0.63 | +0.05 | −0.67 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:54 | 1 | −0.95 | +0.02 | −0.83 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Josef Korenar G | 58:09 | −0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.