PIT beat BUF 8–4. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brian Dumoulin scored at 6:26 of the second, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Michael Houser allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:45 | BUF | Drake Caggiula from Riley Sheahan | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 9:57 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Jared McCann, Frederick Gaudreau | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 11:39 | PIT | Jeff CarterPP from Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 3:32 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Casey Mittelstadt | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:36 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Marcus Pettersson, Frederick Gaudreau | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:13 | BUF | Drake Caggiula from Colin Miller, Rasmus Ristolainen | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 6:26 | PIT | Brian Dumoulin from Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby | 3–4 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:25 | PIT | Jared McCann from Frederick Gaudreau | 3–5 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 3:02 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Jared McCann | 3–6 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 6:25 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel | 3–7 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 9:45 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Ristolainen | 4–7 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 13:05 | PIT | Kasperi Kapanen from Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker | 4–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:09 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.08 | +1.54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 12:53 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.06 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.11 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Riley Sheahan C | 13:28 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:27 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:38 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:07 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 15:40 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:36 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 13:41 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 19:15 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 19:08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:03 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Murray L | 11:10 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:36 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:45 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Houser G | 60:00 | −4.12 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Carter C | 17:16 | 4 | +3.16 | +0.09 | +3.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jared McCann L | 14:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.15 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.89 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.02 | +0.62 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:34 | 3 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:29 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 21:06 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 17:06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 13:39 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:00 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 11:24 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 17:44 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:46 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:01 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:59 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:47 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:17 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.