CAR beat CHI 6–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored at 4:08 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 79%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:20 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 12:32 | CHI | Mike Hardman from MacKenzie Entwistle, Patrick Kane | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 4:32 |  CAR | Nino Niederreiter from Morgan Geekie, Vincent Trocheck | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 15:56 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:08 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 7:19 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–4 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 11:52 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Patrick Kane, Ian Mitchell | 3–4 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 17:23 | CAR | Martin NecasEN unassisted | 3–5 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 18:29 | CAR | Nino NiederreiterEN from Martin Necas, Vincent Trocheck | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:40 | 2 | +1.20 | −0.17 | +1.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hardman L | 10:24 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 18:26 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:44 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 10:55 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:13 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:18 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 24:06 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 15:26 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 10:03 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Wyatt Kalynuk D | 18:06 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 15:02 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 18:13 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:22 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 18:59 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:58 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 15:02 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 13:04 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 58:59 | −0.99 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:45 | 2 | 1 | +1.94 | +0.18 | +1.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:05 | 1 | 2 | +1.03 | +0.42 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:04 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.26 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 22:10 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:24 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:24 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:00 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 15:05 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:33 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:15 | 1 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.27 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Max McCormick L | 7:02 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:40 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:35 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:03 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:35 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 8:52 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:40 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 9:48 | 1 | −0.80 | +0.08 | −0.88 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | +0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.