MIN beat VGK 6–5. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonas Brodin scored at 18:54 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Cam Talbot allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:36 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Jared Spurgeon | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:29 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Mark Stone, Brayden McNabb | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 6:05 | VGK | Alec MartinezPP from Reilly Smith, William Karlsson | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:48 | MIN | Nick Bonino from Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:20 | VGK | Alex Tuch from Peyton Krebs, Nicolas Roy | 3–2 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:48 | VGK | Mark Stone from Chandler Stephenson | 4–2 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 8:44 | MIN | Nick BoninoPP from Jared Spurgeon, Kirill Kaprizov | 4–3 | 20% → 33% |
| P2 16:04 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Alec Martinez, William Karlsson | 5–3 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 10:49 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Nick Bonino, Victor Rask | 5–4 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:28 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Kevin Fiala | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 18:54 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway | 5–6 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 23:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.22 | +0.81 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:35 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:56 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.23 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:09 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.27 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 23:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.10 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 9:05 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:11 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 14:47 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:20 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 15:10 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:16 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:00 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 20:40 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:02 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 20:30 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:42 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.21 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 59:01 | −2.77 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 16:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.49 | +0.05 | +1.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:05 | 1 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.26 | +0.52 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.18 | +0.51 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 22:27 | +0.32 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:51 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:20 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:14 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:12 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 8:44 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 13:48 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 8:33 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:25 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:30 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:13 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:41 | −2.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.