OTT beat WPG 2–1. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nikita Zaitsev scored at 18:47 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:31 | OTT | Connor BrownSH from Nick Paul | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 9:46 |  WPG | Josh Morrissey from Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler | 1–1 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 18:47 | OTT | Nikita Zaitsev from Drake Batherson, Connor Brown | 1–2 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:27 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.13 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 14:19 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:36 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 15:46 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:38 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 5:55 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 14:15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 7:59 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 8:38 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 18:46 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 7:41 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 20:56 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 13:49 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 17:53 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:54 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 17:06 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:13 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:57 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:12 | −0.60 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Brown R | 20:51 | 1 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.24 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 25:26 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.10 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:37 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 23:46 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 9:01 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 11:34 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 10:06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 2:57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 12:02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 24:07 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:50 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Colin White C | 15:52 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:21 | −0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 13:57 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:15 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 14:31 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:51 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 15:56 | −0.42 | +0.08 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.