NSH beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Roman Josi scored at 3:24 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:01 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:29 | NSH | Ryan JohansenPP from Eeli Tolvanen, Filip Forsberg | 2–0 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 19:16 | NSH | Roman Josi from Ryan Ellis, Nick Cousins | 3–0 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 1:54 | CBJ | Emil Bemstrom from Jack Roslovic, Michael Del Zotto | 3–1 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 7:26 | CBJ | Emil Bemstrom from Mikhail Grigorenko, Michael Del Zotto | 3–2 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 15:07 | CBJ | Emil BemstromPP from Seth Jones, Jack Roslovic | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 3:24 | NSH | Roman Josi from Erik Haula, Calle Jarnkrok | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 24:58 | 2 | +1.95 | +0.37 | +1.55 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.36 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.56 | +0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:39 | +0.28 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:01 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:06 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 13:58 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 16:03 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 18:27 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.30 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:55 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 22:09 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 10:34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:54 | −0.11 | +0.26 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:42 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Brad Richardson R | 13:03 | −0.25 | +0.29 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:31 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 12:55 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:40 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 63:24 | −0.15 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Bemstrom C | 18:10 | 3 | +1.52 | +0.01 | +1.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 7:17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 15:28 | −0.12 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 11:51 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 20:24 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zac Dalpe C | 9:59 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:25 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 16:24 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 14:46 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:07 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Lehtonen D | 21:11 | −0.29 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:30 | −0.32 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 19:47 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 15:24 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 9:12 | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 18:37 | −0.41 | −0.32 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:46 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 23:12 | −0.52 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 63:24 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.