BUF beat NYI 4–2. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored at 15:56 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 90%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:15 | NYI | Adam Pelech from Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 10:42 | NYI | Oliver Wahlstrom from Adam Pelech, Kyle Palmieri | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 14:04 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jacob Bryson, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 11:25 | BUF | Rasmus Asplund from Sam Reinhart, Tage Thompson | 2–2 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 15:56 | BUF | Sam Reinhart from Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 19:08 | BUF | Sam ReinhartEN unassisted | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pelech D | 20:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.04 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 12:42 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.09 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 19:36 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 16:09 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:58 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 16:02 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:46 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 17:08 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 12:48 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:21 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 11:40 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 12:32 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 14:26 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:54 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:41 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.47 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:34 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 11:48 | −0.58 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:28 | +0.17 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.19 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:12 | 2 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.13 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Tage Thompson C | 15:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Bryson D | 19:52 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 16:43 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 12:20 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:39 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 18:52 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 20:04 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:50 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 9:40 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:16 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 10:04 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:12 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 17:31 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:34 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 15:08 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:19 | −0.53 | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Houser G | 60:00 | +0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.