PIT beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored at 2:11 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:27 | WSH | T.J. OshiePP from Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:27 |  PIT | Kasperi Kapanen unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 8:32 | PIT | Frederick Gaudreau from Jason Zucker, Colton Sceviour | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 9:02 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Nicklas Backstrom | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 15:07 | WSH | Daniel Sprong from Justin Schultz, Dmitry Orlov | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:11 | PIT | Zachary Aston-Reese from Colton Sceviour | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 10:55 | PIT | Kasperi Kapanen from Jared McCann, Jeff Carter | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:45 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 2:11 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from John Marino, Jared McCann | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:29 | 2 | +1.61 | −0.03 | +1.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 7:52 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:24 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.07 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:27 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 6:19 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:50 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 12:32 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:04 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:07 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 18:16 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 20:25 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 29:16 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:32 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 1:53 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:17 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 23:05 | −0.75 | −0.21 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 62:11 | −0.76 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:00 | 1 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.29 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:04 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 21:59 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:03 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:00 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:50 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 20:35 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 14:25 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:08 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 15:48 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:28 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 15:10 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 11:11 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 12:59 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 21:16 | 3 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 23:37 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:01 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:25 | −0.53 | −0.22 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:45 | −2.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.