DAL beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 2.9, DAL 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jamie Benn scored at 2:44 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. James Reimer allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:19 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 16:59 | DAL | Jason Dickinson from Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 13:24 | CAR | Max McCormick from Morgan Geekie, Cedric Paquette | 1–2 | 11% → 25% |
| P2 16:28 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 17:04 | DAL | Denis Gurianov from Jamie Benn | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 15:46 | CAR | Jani Hakanpää from Morgan Geekie, Jordan Staal | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 2:44 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Jason Robertson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max McCormick L | 6:54 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.14 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 10:29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:55 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 18:35 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 3:45 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:49 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 22:52 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 22:33 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 11:40 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 14:44 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:46 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 22:41 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:46 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 11:43 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 16:50 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 62:44 | −1.06 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn L | 19:02 | 1 | 3 | +1.10 | +0.30 | +0.54 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Jason Dickinson C | 21:07 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.10 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 16:33 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:14 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.03 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 25:50 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 18:55 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 5:24 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:22 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Kero C | 7:01 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 17:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:03 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 16:21 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 7:36 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:42 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:26 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 20:33 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 17:07 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:24 | −0.51 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 62:44 | −0.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.