STL beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.2, MIN 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored at 3:43 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Cam Talbot allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:14 | STL | Sammy Blais from Torey Krug, Jaden Schwartz | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 7:34 | STL | Tyler BozakSH unassisted | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 10:55 | STL | Marco Scandella from Jordan Kyrou | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 17:01 |  MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek unassisted | 3–1 | 3% → 12% |
| P3 2:21 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Victor Rask | 3–2 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 6:16 | STL | Ryan O'ReillyPP from David Perron, Torey Krug | 4–2 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 15:21 | MIN | Victor Rask from Kevin Fiala, Carson Soucy | 4–3 | 1% → 13% |
| P3 19:08 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 3:43 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Jordan Kyrou | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:18 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.14 | +1.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 23:32 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.06 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 14:24 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:26 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:11 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:57 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 30:44 | +0.03 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 11:50 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 12:57 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 10:20 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 22:49 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:47 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:05 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 14:44 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 4:53 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 20:52 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:54 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 63:43 | −1.68 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:05 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:29 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.15 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Rask C | 17:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.28 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.35 | −0.25 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:07 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 14:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 21:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 7:15 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 7:45 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:14 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 7:36 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:51 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:18 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:25 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 25:37 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 62:25 | −3.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.