CGY beat OTT 6–1. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 10:39 of the first, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:39 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Mark Giordano, Matthew Tkachuk | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:17 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Andrew Mangiapane, Joakim Nordstrom | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:38 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 10:05 | CGY | Michael Stone from Glenn Gawdin, Milan Lucic | 0–4 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 11:06 | OTT | Josh Norris from Drake Batherson | 1–4 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 6:45 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Derek Ryan | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 13:53 | CGY | Mark GiordanoPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.41 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 16:00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin White C | 16:49 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:14 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olle Alsing D | 13:17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 17:42 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:23 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 11:07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 11:20 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 11:22 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:51 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 19:08 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 15:07 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 22:10 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:31 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:27 | −0.65 | −0.09 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 29:55 | −0.55 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 30:05 | −1.72 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.12 | +0.41 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Giordano D | 23:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.37 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:35 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Stone D | 18:20 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.39 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.05 | +0.40 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Glenn Gawdin C | 11:13 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:58 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:30 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 12:03 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 14:58 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 12:38 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 13:16 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:20 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:00 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterov D | 20:15 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 10:56 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.