Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2021-04-19 · American Airlines Center

2 – 3Final/SO

DAL beat DET 3–2 in a shootout. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Luke Glendening scored at 16:55 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 24% to 47%. Anton Khudobin saved 1.1 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
22 – 36
Expected goals
1.9 – 4.0
xG share
DAL 67%
Home-ice start
DAL 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DET goalDAL goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DETDAL

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

DET
2 G, 0 A · 15:39 TOI
On-ice −0.15 · Finishing +1.49 · Penalties +0.18
+1.47
DAL
1 G, 0 A · 19:38 TOI
On-ice +0.21 · Finishing +0.56 · Playmaking +0.06 · Penalties −0.18 · Shootout +0.67
+1.30
DAL
Anton Khudobin
64:58 TOI
GSAx +1.11
+1.11

Rough nights

DET
0 G, 0 A · 18:55 TOI
On-ice −0.73 · Finishing −0.12 · Shootout −0.49
−1.32
DET
0 G, 0 A · 25:01 TOI
On-ice −0.65 · Finishing −0.15 · Shootout −0.49
−1.32
DET
Sam Gagner
0 G, 0 A · 17:41 TOI
On-ice −0.17 · Finishing −0.12 · Shootout −0.38
−0.68

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDET–DALWin prob.
P1 15:50 DALRoope HintzPP
from Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg
0–154% → 71%
P2 7:45 DETLuke Glendening
from Evgeny Svechnikov, Alex Biega
1–127% → 47%
P2 11:06 DALJason Robertson
from Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen
1–253% → 74%
P2 16:55 DETLuke Glendening
from Alex Biega, Darren Helm
2–224% → 47%

Every player

Show both lineups

DET

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Luke Glendening C15:392+1.47−0.15+1.49−0.04+0.01+0.18−0.02−0.00
Dylan Larkin C21:22+0.13−0.19−0.33+0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.67
Alex Biega D11:302+0.12+0.10+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Gustav Lindstrom D14:49+0.04+0.05+0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Danny DeKeyser D21:22+0.02−0.00+0.01−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Marc Staal D17:06−0.16−0.13−0.02+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Valtteri Filppula C18:30−0.21−0.21−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01−0.00
Troy Stecher D16:12−0.23−0.25+0.01−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Filip Zadina R17:42−0.23−0.06−0.15−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Rasmussen C16:08−0.31−0.22−0.09−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Dennis Cholowski D16:56−0.33−0.30−0.04−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Darren Helm C15:261−0.34−0.07−0.08−0.01+0.01−0.18+0.00−0.00
Richard Panik R15:53−0.36−0.03−0.32+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Vladislav Namestnikov C17:50−0.52−0.47−0.00−0.00+0.01+0.00−0.05+0.00
Evgeny Svechnikov L13:571−0.66+0.11−0.10−0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00−0.49
Sam Gagner C17:41−0.68−0.17−0.12+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01−0.38
Filip Hronek D25:01−1.32−0.65−0.15−0.00−0.03+0.00+0.00−0.49
Adam Erne L18:55−1.32−0.73−0.12−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00−0.49
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Thomas Greiss G65:00+0.74

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Jason Robertson L19:381+1.30+0.21+0.56+0.06−0.01−0.18+0.00+0.67
Denis Gurianov R19:51+0.92+0.20−0.29−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+1.01
Roope Hintz C20:1211+0.54+0.47+0.52+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.02−0.49
Jamie Oleksiak D20:25+0.32+0.40−0.06−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jamie Benn L19:01+0.17+0.13−0.02+0.05+0.00+0.00+0.02−0.00
Jason Dickinson C19:06+0.12+0.28−0.13−0.02+0.01+0.00−0.02−0.00
Miro Heiskanen D23:322+0.06+0.67−0.11−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.49
John Klingberg D24:031+0.05+0.24−0.37+0.01−0.02+0.18+0.00+0.00
Andrej Sekera D13:48+0.03+0.04+0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Justin Dowling C9:13−0.02−0.04−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.03−0.00
Sami Vatanen D16:39−0.02−0.03+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Tanner Kero C8:42−0.03−0.02−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Rhett Gardner C8:43−0.03−0.02−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Andrew Cogliano C14:55−0.03+0.13−0.15−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01+0.00
Radek Faksa C15:30−0.09+0.10−0.20−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.02−0.00
Esa Lindell D26:33−0.13+0.01−0.19+0.01+0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Blake Comeau L14:47−0.16+0.05−0.19−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01−0.00
Joe Pavelski C18:24−0.22+0.40−0.29+0.01+0.02+0.00+0.02−0.38
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Anton Khudobin G64:58+1.11

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.