VAN beat TOR 6–3. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tanner Pearson scored on the power play at 9:48 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 83%. David Rittich allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:55 | TOR | John Tavares from William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:33 |  VAN | Brandon Sutter from Brock Boeser, Travis Hamonic | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:08 | VAN | Quinn Hughes from J.T. Miller | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:14 | TOR | John TavaresPP from William Nylander, Auston Matthews | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 3:10 | TOR | Adam BrooksSH from Mitch Marner, Justin Holl | 3–2 | 47% → 74% |
| P3 6:43 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 9:48 | VAN | Tanner PearsonPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 3–4 | 53% → 83% |
| P3 13:36 | VAN | Tanner Pearson unassisted | 3–5 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 19:24 | VAN | Brandon SutterEN from Nate Schmidt | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 20:44 | 2 | +1.29 | −0.12 | +1.44 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Brooks C | 9:01 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.03 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 8:31 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 16:14 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:26 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:30 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:24 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 12:47 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 15:15 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:39 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 12:03 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 9:17 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:40 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:31 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 21:22 | 2 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 23:36 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.07 | −0.77 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 55:20 | −2.94 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Pearson L | 19:39 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.02 | +1.57 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 22:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | +0.08 | +0.83 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:05 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 15:40 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matthew Highmore C | 15:54 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 9:41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 5:03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 23:06 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 12:19 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:24 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Olli Juolevi D | 14:50 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:57 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 20:40 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:10 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:33 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 12:44 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:26 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:47 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 59:51 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.