EDM beat MTL 4–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 15:11 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Mike Smith saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:46 | MTL | Eric Staal from Corey Perry | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 10:49 | EDM | Ethan Bear from Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi | 1–1 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 15:11 | EDM | Connor McDavid unassisted | 1–2 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 17:37 | EDM | Jesse Puljujarvi from Connor McDavid | 1–3 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 18:21 | EDM | Devin ShoreEN from Kailer Yamamoto, Kris Russell | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Staal C | 11:06 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Shea Weber D | 23:16 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:36 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:11 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 15:55 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:47 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 14:14 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 13:49 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:48 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:10 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:33 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:24 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:34 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:27 | −0.48 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 13:08 | −0.50 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 13:39 | −0.60 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:10 | −0.67 | +0.01 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 20:00 | +0.60 |
| Jake Allen G | 39:42 | −0.28 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Bear D | 20:09 | 1 | +1.50 | +0.69 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 27:00 | 1 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.46 | +0.48 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.43 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Caleb Jones D | 12:04 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Gaetan Haas C | 11:06 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 14:22 | +0.04 | +0.49 | −0.42 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 1:59 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joakim Nygard L | 8:14 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 15:52 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 13:14 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 19:39 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:17 | −0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 17:19 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kahun C | 14:02 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 12:31 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:44 | −0.38 | +0.45 | −0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:22 | −0.59 | −0.18 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:57 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.24 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 60:00 | +1.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.