Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2021-04-18 · Wells Fargo Center

1 – 0Final/OT

NYI beat PHI 1–0 in overtime. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Leddy scored at 2:23 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 2.5 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
28 – 30
Expected goals
3.0 – 2.6
xG share
NYI 54%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

NYI goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

NYIPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

NYI
61:49 TOI
GSAx +2.51
+2.51
PHI
Brian Elliott
62:23 TOI
GSAx +1.64
+1.64
NYI
1 G, 0 A · 23:02 TOI
On-ice +0.12 · Finishing +0.79
+0.89

Rough nights

NYI
0 G, 0 A · 15:19 TOI
On-ice +0.06 · Finishing −0.46 · Penalties −0.18
−0.62
NYI
0 G, 1 A · 15:50 TOI
On-ice −0.29 · Finishing −0.27
−0.59
PHI
0 G, 0 A · 22:28 TOI
On-ice −0.34 · Finishing −0.26
−0.56

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalNYI–PHIWin prob.
OT 2:23 NYINick Leddy
from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jordan Eberle
1–048% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

NYI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Nick Leddy D23:021+0.89+0.12+0.79+0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Mathew Barzal C17:00+0.40+0.33−0.12+0.02−0.01+0.18+0.00
Leo Komarov R15:29+0.22+0.02−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.18+0.02
Adam Pelech D22:05+0.18+0.17+0.00−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Scott Mayfield D19:37+0.11+0.17−0.07+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Travis Zajac C16:20+0.06+0.06−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.01
Kyle Palmieri C17:39+0.03+0.28−0.27+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Ryan Pulock D23:17+0.02−0.03+0.01+0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Braydon Coburn D12:53−0.01+0.01−0.02−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Matt Martin L12:20−0.02+0.00−0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Dal Colle L14:40−0.05+0.14−0.18−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Andy Greene D17:27−0.19−0.17−0.04−0.00+0.03+0.00+0.00
Jordan Eberle R16:191−0.24+0.13−0.38+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00
Oliver Wahlstrom R9:24−0.25−0.14−0.12−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Brock Nelson C20:53−0.27+0.27−0.46−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.07
Anthony Beauvillier R16:09−0.36−0.35−0.00−0.00+0.01+0.00−0.01
Jean-Gabriel Pageau C15:501−0.59−0.29−0.27−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Casey Cizikas C15:19−0.62+0.06−0.46−0.01−0.00−0.18−0.02
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ilya Sorokin G61:49+2.51

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Claude Giroux R19:13−0.03−0.12−0.00+0.02−0.00+0.00+0.09
James van Riemsdyk L18:00−0.03+0.12−0.16+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Samuel Morin L12:31−0.04−0.00−0.00−0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
Robert Hagg D19:16−0.06−0.04−0.04+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Nicolas Aube-Kubel R6:18−0.07−0.06−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Carsen Twarynski L7:13−0.07−0.04−0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Scott Laughton C18:02−0.08−0.03−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.04
Shayne Gostisbehere D19:20−0.10+0.05−0.14+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Justin Braun D18:12−0.10−0.10−0.01−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Joel Farabee L15:50−0.14+0.15−0.28−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Travis Konecny R16:41−0.16+0.05−0.20+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.01
Oskar Lindblom L9:29−0.17−0.16−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Wade Allison R13:17−0.32+0.07−0.19−0.02+0.01−0.18+0.00
Ivan Provorov D27:47−0.32−0.21−0.27−0.01−0.01+0.18+0.00
Jakub Voracek R20:22−0.37−0.23−0.17+0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00
Travis Sanheim D23:08−0.39−0.08−0.30+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Kevin Hayes R16:02−0.40+0.12−0.37+0.01−0.00−0.18+0.03
Sean Couturier C22:28−0.56−0.34−0.26+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.03
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Brian Elliott G62:23+1.64

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.