VAN beat EDM 4–1. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Highmore scored at 9:13 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 79%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:45 | EDM | Adam Larsson from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:27 | VAN | Bo HorvatSH from Tanner Pearson | 1–1 | 28% → 46% |
| P3 9:13 | VAN | Matthew Highmore from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 9:29 | VAN | Travis Boyd from Jimmy Vesey | 3–1 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 13:27 | VAN | Matthew Highmore from Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller | 4–1 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Highmore C | 17:35 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.03 | +1.63 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 15:07 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.03 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.25 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:54 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Michaelis L | 11:17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:55 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:44 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 11:59 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 12:15 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 26:41 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:05 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 14:49 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Rathbone D | 15:58 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:10 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Tyler Graovac C | 12:17 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:08 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:00 | +2.47 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larsson D | 14:26 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.10 | +0.87 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nygard L | 13:23 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 13:00 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 16:38 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 15:01 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 16:28 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 16:50 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.25 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 17:11 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 17:18 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:53 | −0.14 | +0.24 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 16:12 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.47 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:18 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:41 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| James Neal L | 14:44 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Gaetan Haas C | 12:52 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 17:57 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 18:43 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:00 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.