VGK beat ARI 1–0. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Nosek scored at 10:38 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Adin Hill saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 10:38 | VGK | Tomas Nosek from Jonathan Marchessault | 0–1 | 52% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fischer R | 13:35 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Gross D | 3:18 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:51 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 15:15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 15:09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:13 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 11:54 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 19:40 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 11:41 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 17:24 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 26:48 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:38 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 12:00 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:54 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:41 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 25:05 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 21:37 | −0.33 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 16:25 | −0.50 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:37 | +1.07 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Nosek L | 16:02 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.12 | +0.68 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:01 | +0.30 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:26 | +0.25 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:31 | +0.16 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:00 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 20:20 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 10:43 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:45 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 14:32 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:06 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 15:35 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 4:46 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 14:44 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:30 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 20:37 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:40 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 16:14 | −0.31 | +0.18 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:50 | +0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.