CGY beat VAN 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 2.0, CGY 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andrew Mangiapane scored at 5:17 of the first, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Thatcher Demko allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:02 | VAN | Matthew Highmore from Travis Hamonic, Brock Boeser | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:36 |  CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 5:17 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Nikita Nesterov, Joakim Nordstrom | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 15:33 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev | 1–3 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 16:37 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Highmore C | 17:27 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.08 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.12 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 20:15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Michaelis L | 9:01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Graovac C | 9:35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 10:27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 12:33 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 20:34 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 11:34 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 23:09 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Juolevi D | 14:40 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:45 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 23:37 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:15 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:34 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:37 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 19:55 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:00 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.54 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:49 | −1.84 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.11 | +0.84 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.12 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:20 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 26:15 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 16:03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Glenn Gawdin C | 8:47 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:06 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 14:02 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:07 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:11 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:53 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 12:45 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Nesterov D | 16:35 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 12:14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 13:54 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 14:14 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.