LAK beat ARI 4–3. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carl Grundstrom scored at 13:55 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Adin Hill allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:30 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:44 | ARI | Ilya Lyubushkin from Lawson Crouse, Christian Fischer | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 17:21 |  LAK | Jaret Anderson-Dolan from Trevor Moore, Kale Clague | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 5:55 | ARI | Johan Larsson from Jakob Chychrun, Phil Kessel | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P3 1:18 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Kale Clague, Sean Walker | 3–2 | 9% → 27% |
| P3 4:17 | LAK | Jeff Carter from Drew Doughty, Blake Lizotte | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 13:55 | LAK | Carl Grundstrom from Trevor Moore, Drew Doughty | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.27 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:23 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.09 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 14:08 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.11 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jason Demers D | 15:09 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 14:57 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:15 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 14:39 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.32 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Conor Garland R | 19:21 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Chaput C | 7:20 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:55 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 14:36 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 8:48 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 17:21 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:28 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:31 | −0.33 | +0.26 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 18:13 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:07 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 22:39 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:25 | −1.18 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:09 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 9:49 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 12:23 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.07 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 14:05 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.23 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 24:17 | +0.24 | +0.18 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.09 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 14:12 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Strand D | 7:51 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 12:02 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 10:45 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Wagner L | 12:35 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:54 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 29:15 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 19:52 | −0.21 | +0.23 | −0.47 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 21:38 | −0.22 | +0.22 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 13:55 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 28:54 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:13 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 15:11 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | −0.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.