TOR beat CGY 5–3. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikael Backlund scored short-handed at 10:05 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 19% to 50%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:10 | TOR | Jason Spezza from Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Dermott | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:53 | TOR | Auston Matthews from William Nylander, TJ Brodie | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 18:06 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm | 2–1 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 4:17 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Sam Bennett | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 7:13 | TOR | Wayne Simmonds from Pierre Engvall | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 10:05 | CGY | Mikael BacklundSH from Elias Lindholm | 3–3 | 19% → 50% |
| P3 10:50 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from John Tavares, Zach Hyman | 4–3 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 12:10 | TOR | John Tavares from Jake Muzzin, William Nylander | 5–3 | 83% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 20:16 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.13 | +1.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 12:21 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.08 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.06 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Pierre Engvall L | 10:53 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 20:03 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:09 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 13:12 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 20:58 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 21:13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:32 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.29 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:22 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 11:49 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.67 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 13:41 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 13:20 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:55 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 15:18 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 59:13 | +0.07 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:22 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.04 | +1.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 14:50 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 17:23 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 24:00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 16:22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 12:14 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 21:49 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 17:09 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 12:59 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:00 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 10:02 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 14:28 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterov D | 15:11 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 13:03 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 12:18 | −0.71 | −0.15 | −0.54 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:09 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.