ARI beat ANA 3–2 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jakob Chychrun scored at 1:47 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:31 | ANA | Sam Carrick from Trevor Zegras | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 8:58 |  ARI | Jakob Chychrun from John Hayden, Alex Goligoski | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:47 | ANA | Derek Grant from Trevor Zegras, Max Jones | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 15:09 | ARI | Jakob Chychrun from Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland | 2–2 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 1:47 | ARI | Jakob Chychrun from Clayton Keller, Johan Larsson | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:50 | 3 | +2.71 | +0.24 | +2.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:37 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 15:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:03 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:18 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:48 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 9:29 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:59 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.29 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 18:02 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:21 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:15 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 13:17 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 18:52 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 12:44 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Gross D | 14:38 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 7:20 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 19:18 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 61:47 | −0.33 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Grant C | 15:04 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.15 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 14:54 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.03 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Alexander Volkov R | 12:51 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:03 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 21:52 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 18:17 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:40 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 13:26 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 21:33 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:29 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:08 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 21:32 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 15:10 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 14:49 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:09 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 61:47 | −0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.