VAN beat WPG 3–1. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nils Hoglander scored at 3:04 of the first, moving VAN’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:04 |  VAN | Nils Hoglander unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:21 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Tanner Pearson, Matthew Highmore | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 10:44 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Mathieu Perreault, Mark Scheifele | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P3 10:16 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from J.T. Miller, Jack Rathbone | 3–1 | 80% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:52 | 2 | +1.38 | +0.07 | +1.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:51 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.19 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 18:56 | +0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Michaelis L | 7:57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 24:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:49 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 10:29 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 20:43 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 19:22 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 7:09 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:18 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:30 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 20:15 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 19:09 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Rathbone D | 16:20 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Graovac C | 11:52 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:45 | −0.45 | +0.23 | −0.68 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:40 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.18 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:00 | +2.45 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 24:23 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 16:48 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:49 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 14:44 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:05 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:01 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 17:13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 18:39 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 6:25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:39 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 8:02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 8:46 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:09 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 19:06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 23:23 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:30 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:39 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.15 | −0.66 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 57:40 | −0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.