COL beat STL 2–1. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 19:19 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Ville Husso saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:27 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:04 |  STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Brayden Schenn, David Perron | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 19:19 | COL | Cale Makar unassisted | 1–2 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:36 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.11 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake Walman D | 15:33 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:07 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 12:16 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.18 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 14:29 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 10:32 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 21:20 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 17:50 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 13:28 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:25 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:02 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 25:27 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:35 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:49 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:31 | −0.40 | −0.27 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:23 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:28 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:23 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 59:42 | +1.57 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 26:43 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.17 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:05 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.15 | +0.67 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 21:17 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 10:12 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:57 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Renouf D | 5:18 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 11:23 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 6:03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 11:15 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 23:03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 12:37 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:27 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 28:44 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:51 | −0.35 | +0.13 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:45 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:51 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.63 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 17:15 | −0.76 | +0.11 | −0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.