OTT beat MTL 6–3. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov scored at 7:49 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Carey Price allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:42 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:31 | MTL | Tyler ToffoliPP from Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:07 | OTT | Connor BrownSH from Nick Paul, Braydon Coburn | 2–1 | 46% → 63% |
| P2 6:58 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Victor Mete | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:49 | OTT | Evgenii Dadonov from Thomas Chabot, Artem Anisimov | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 16:02 | OTT | Evgenii Dadonov from Artem Anisimov, Tim Stützle | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 18:48 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber | 4–3 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 2:55 | OTT | Alex Formenton from Artem Anisimov | 5–3 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 17:05 | OTT | Drake BathersonEN from Mike Reilly | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:07 | 2 | +1.54 | −0.00 | +1.55 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 14:14 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.77 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Brown R | 17:41 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.16 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 13:25 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.17 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:54 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 10:13 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tim Stützle C | 14:35 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 17:44 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:30 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 15:28 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 15:00 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:08 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Clark Bishop C | 12:07 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 22:40 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:18 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 12:20 | 3 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +0.59 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson R | 19:16 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.02 | +1.55 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:56 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.06 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 16:17 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 16:23 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:43 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 16:54 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 14:58 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 15:48 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 10:17 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 11:42 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:47 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 20:09 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:16 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 10:55 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:24 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:54 | −0.56 | +0.04 | −0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 59:20 | −1.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.