BOS beat PIT 7–5. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.1, BOS 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: David Krejci scored on the power play at 18:29 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Casey DeSmith allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:24 | PIT | Mark Jankowski from Mike Matheson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:11 | BOS | Patrice Bergeron unassisted | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 0:45 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Nick Ritchie, David Krejci | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:45 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:11 | PIT | Jared McCannPP from Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby | 3–2 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 14:56 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Matt Grzelcyk, Craig Smith | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:29 | BOS | David KrejciPP from Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:40 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Craig Smith, Charlie McAvoy | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 4:38 | PIT | Cody Ceci from Mark Jankowski, Sam Lafferty | 4–5 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 13:28 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Nick Ritchie | 4–6 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 18:45 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Jake Guentzel | 5–6 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 18:59 | BOS | Brad MarchandEN from Charlie Coyle | 5–7 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ceci D | 18:54 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.01 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:48 | 1 | 2 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.72 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.06 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jared McCann L | 19:17 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 13:51 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:25 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Angello C | 7:09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 17:26 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:40 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:14 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 24:35 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 7:45 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:49 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:45 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:54 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 18:09 | −0.51 | −0.09 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 58:26 | −3.64 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 20:27 | 2 | 1 | +1.69 | +0.04 | +1.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.36 | −0.01 |
| Brad Marchand L | 18:21 | 3 | 1 | +1.46 | +0.13 | +1.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.15 | +0.55 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| David Krejci C | 20:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Connor Clifton D | 15:03 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 17:05 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Zboril D | 21:35 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:50 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 14:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 16:21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:25 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Senyshyn R | 7:41 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Kampfer D | 20:36 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 7:19 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:35 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 8:13 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:08 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 60:00 | −2.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.