MIN beat VGK 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 4.0, VGK 4.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon scored on the power play at 5:31 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Cam Talbot saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:29 | VGK | William Karlsson from Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:57 |  MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Jordan Greenway, Jonas Brodin | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P3 1:39 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from William Carrier, Tomas Nosek | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:31 | MIN | Jared SpurgeonPP from Kevin Fiala, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:33 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.10 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:30 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.41 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:39 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.08 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:33 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:11 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Johnson C | 6:43 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:26 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 11:44 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Rau C | 8:47 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 6:19 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 19:33 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 14:48 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:53 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:36 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 12:24 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 15:03 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:16 | −0.83 | +0.20 | −0.73 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:56 | +3.10 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 24:01 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.07 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.15 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 23:42 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 23:09 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 29:45 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 10:49 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 9:10 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 25:04 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.46 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:21 | −0.40 | +0.07 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:31 | −0.48 | −0.04 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:39 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 23:08 | −0.55 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 17:50 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.51 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:21 | −0.65 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 21:12 | −0.72 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 65:00 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.