SJS beat MIN 4–2. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Rudolfs Balcers scored at 4:41 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:41 | SJS | Rudolfs Balcers from Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:22 | SJS | Ryan DonatoPP from Brent Burns, Mario Ferraro | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 8:23 |  MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Carson Soucy, Ryan Hartman | 1–2 | 5% → 18% |
| P3 10:58 | SJS | Nikolai Knyzhov from Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl | 1–3 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 19:47 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon | 2–3 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 19:59 | SJS | Evander KaneEN from Logan Couture | 2–4 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:23 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.05 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:13 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.08 | +0.50 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Johnson C | 7:46 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:59 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:52 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:12 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 20:49 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:19 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 13:07 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 15:25 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 15:26 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 13:44 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:19 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 8:18 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:54 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:07 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:52 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.22 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 57:50 | +0.19 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 16:57 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.10 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 13:31 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.15 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 13:07 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.11 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:02 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:21 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 26:50 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Simek D | 13:49 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 10:40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 10:06 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 18:51 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:17 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 12:17 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:57 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Evander Kane L | 20:46 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.13 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:23 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 12:18 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 22:24 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.12 | −0.58 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 60:00 | −0.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.