NSH beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.7, NSH 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Eeli Tolvanen scored at 1:29 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:12 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:04 |  NSH | Roman JosiPP from Calle Jarnkrok, Eeli Tolvanen | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:02 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 4:05 | NSH | Calle Jarnkrok from Luke Kunin, Mikael Granlund | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 1:29 | NSH | Eeli Tolvanen from Viktor Arvidsson, Alexandre Carrier | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 18:08 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.65 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.05 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 14:22 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:35 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 16:29 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 12:52 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:46 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 11:40 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Kero C | 13:12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:57 | −0.15 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 17:27 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 15:55 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rhett Gardner C | 11:54 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:58 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 14:36 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 22:57 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 17:15 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 61:29 | −0.40 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 23:42 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.14 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.30 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.28 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Matt Benning D | 18:06 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:50 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:07 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:33 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:49 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:39 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 18:12 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:00 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.23 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:48 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:02 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 12:57 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 13:01 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:52 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 61:29 | +0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.