SJS beat MIN 4–3 in a shootout. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored at 9:48 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 17% to 48%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:41 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Kevin Fiala, Ryan Hartman | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:04 | SJS | Radim Simek from Ryan Donato, John Leonard | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:00 | MIN | Nick Bonino from Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 15:45 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Evander Kane | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:11 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Ryan Donato, Dylan Gambrell | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 9:48 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Mathew Dumba, Marcus Johansson | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | +1.17 | −0.29 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:52 | +1.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +1.01 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 24:15 | +0.15 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 14:30 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:01 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Johnson C | 10:08 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:49 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:45 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 11:10 | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 18:05 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:51 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:55 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:44 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.49 | |
| Victor Rask C | 16:06 | −0.69 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:05 | −0.78 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | −0.18 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:07 | 2 | +2.63 | +0.21 | +1.47 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Radim Simek D | 15:53 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.20 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 18:56 | +0.51 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.79 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:50 | +0.37 | +0.16 | −0.79 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:00 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:19 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 7:28 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 10:57 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 18:23 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:56 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 16:44 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 12:16 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:00 | −0.36 | +0.33 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.49 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 14:42 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| John Leonard L | 14:06 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 25:02 | −0.50 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:18 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 65:00 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.