PHI beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ivan Provorov scored at 0:42 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:41 |  BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Curtis Lazar, Kyle Okposo | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:10 | BUF | Cody Eakin from Tobias Rieder, Riley Sheahan | 0–2 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 12:43 | BUF | Brandon Montour from Tage Thompson, Taylor Hall | 0–3 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 1:50 | PHI | Kevin Hayes from Travis Sanheim | 1–3 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 10:51 | PHI | Claude Giroux from Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek | 2–3 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 18:31 | PHI | Sean CouturierPP from Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 0:42 | PHI | Ivan Provorov from Travis Konecny | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier C | 21:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.55 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:48 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.26 | −0.06 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Claude Giroux R | 20:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 18:45 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:41 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:35 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 21:30 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 19:15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 7:15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Patrick C | 7:06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 8:40 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Morin L | 10:30 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 18:09 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 15:56 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 15:04 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 60:06 | −0.78 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 15:14 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.09 | +0.43 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 13:22 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.20 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 13:35 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.44 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:23 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:09 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 20:11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 22:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 15:19 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 3:11 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 17:07 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 16:44 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:30 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 15:05 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 22:24 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 18:30 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:27 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:42 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.