ANA beat STL 3–2 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Manson scored at 1:42 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anthony Stolarz saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:27 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Vladimir Tarasenko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:59 | STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Torey Krug, David Perron | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 8:24 |  ANA | Cam Fowler from Ryan Getzlaf, Max Jones | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 2:13 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Max Jones | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 1:42 | ANA | Josh Manson from Anthony Stolarz, Jakob Silfverberg | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.21 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 18:13 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Welinski D | 13:25 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 15:56 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 13:18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 18:22 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 10:04 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:10 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 17:30 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 17:16 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 18:10 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:00 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 20:01 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 18:10 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 21:05 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 16:45 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.08 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 17:38 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 61:42 | +1.51 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:22 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.13 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.16 | +0.51 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:27 | +0.22 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 21:59 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 26:05 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:15 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 13:38 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 9:46 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 28:06 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:54 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 12:35 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:11 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:00 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 18:14 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 9:11 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:22 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:51 | −0.63 | +0.09 | −0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 61:42 | −1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.