TOR beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 5.0 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Justin Holl scored at 4:42 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anton Forsberg saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:53 |  OTT | Connor BrownSH from Chris Tierney | 0–1 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 14:40 | TOR | Ilya Mikheyev from TJ Brodie, Zach Hyman | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 10:41 | TOR | Jason Spezza from Alexander Kerfoot | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 13:14 | OTT | Alex Formenton from Clark Bishop, Ryan Dzingel | 2–2 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 4:42 | TOR | Justin Holl from Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 10:40 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.21 | +0.43 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 13:34 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.17 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:18 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 14:33 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 25:06 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 8:53 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 16:09 | +0.03 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:46 | +0.02 | +0.56 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 11:43 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 24:04 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.65 | −0.71 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 24:43 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.62 | −0.67 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:25 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:08 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 12:41 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 14:41 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:41 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:25 | −0.71 | +0.27 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 64:42 | +1.35 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Formenton L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.14 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Brown R | 18:19 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 20:01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 12:31 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 12:55 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Clark Bishop C | 8:53 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 12:11 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 10:57 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 19:50 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:10 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 25:56 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:00 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 20:10 | −0.49 | −0.05 | −0.51 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 16:09 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:11 | −0.61 | −0.38 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:57 | −0.79 | −0.27 | −0.70 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 31:18 | −0.90 | −0.47 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 64:42 | +1.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.