MTL beat VAN 5–4 in a shootout. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher scored at 5:29 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 24% to 52%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:26 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 0:22 | VAN | Jake Virtanen from J.T. Miller | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:08 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 13:44 | MTL | Tomas Tatar from Phillip Danault, Victor Mete | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:21 | MTL | Joel Edmundson from Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:22 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 0:55 | VAN | Tyler Motte from Jayce Hawryluk, Jordie Benn | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 5:29 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Phillip Danault | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 23:31 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.34 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 17:09 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.26 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 12:37 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.07 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 8:20 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:00 | 1 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.49 |
| Antoine Roussel L | 10:16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:41 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 22:45 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:45 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 20:06 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 15:58 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 13:19 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:59 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 18:04 | −0.43 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:43 | −0.57 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:34 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 18:59 | −0.73 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 24:14 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 65:00 | −0.47 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +2.36 | +0.46 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:50 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.32 | +0.88 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:23 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.10 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 12:43 | +0.72 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:21 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.00 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.49 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 16:49 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 13:07 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 9:32 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 25:34 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:07 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.49 | −0.62 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Victor Mete D | 13:32 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 22:39 | −0.15 | +0.22 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 18:31 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:51 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:13 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.49 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Shea Weber D | 21:52 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Byron L | 11:28 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:11 | −0.53 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 65:00 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.