DET beat DAL 3–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robby Fabbri scored at 14:00 of the first, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Jonathan Bernier saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:00 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Anthony Mantha, Troy Stecher | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:36 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Marc Staal | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 9:05 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Dylan Larkin | 0–3 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 9:30 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Denis Gurianov, Joel Hanley | 1–3 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 18:40 | DAL | Jason DickinsonPP from Jason Robertson, John Klingberg | 2–3 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz C | 16:22 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:31 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 11:50 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:56 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 19:45 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Kero C | 6:41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 12:54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:52 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:43 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 10:26 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:42 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 17:05 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:59 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:53 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 21:26 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 14:37 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 24:53 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.05 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 57:32 | −0.77 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:15 | 3 | +2.20 | −0.04 | +2.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 16:25 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:21 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:07 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:24 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 8:51 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 17:42 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 18:04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:15 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 18:20 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 9:23 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 18:23 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 13:15 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 17:54 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:37 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:33 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 15:26 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:45 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 38:32 | +2.08 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 21:28 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.