VGK beat SJS 5–4. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Reaves scored at 12:27 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 85%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:45 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Max Pacioretty | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:21 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:57 | SJS | Mario Ferraro from John Leonard, Evander Kane | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 15:07 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Evander Kane, Mario Ferraro | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 6:43 | VGK | Cody GlassPP from Shea Theodore, Mark Stone | 3–2 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 10:03 | VGK | Nicolas Hague from Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 12:27 | VGK | Ryan Reaves from Tomas Nosek, Zach Whitecloud | 3–4 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 14:46 | VGK | Alec MartinezPP from Tomas Nosek, Shea Theodore | 3–5 | 89% → 98% |
| P3 15:54 | SJS | Evander KanePP from Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl | 4–5 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.21 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evander Kane L | 24:07 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.18 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matt Nieto L | 17:22 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.11 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 19:01 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.16 | +0.50 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:34 | +0.23 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 13:32 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 13:21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kurtis Gabriel R | 7:27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 17:12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:36 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:14 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 16:24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:39 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 16:10 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| John Leonard L | 10:50 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Handemark C | 8:27 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 10:23 | −0.64 | +0.18 | −0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 58:27 | −1.94 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hague D | 14:18 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.08 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:40 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.10 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 17:29 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 26:18 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 26:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Nosek L | 15:23 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:18 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 14:06 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Jurco R | 7:56 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 20:42 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:37 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:24 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:33 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 20:39 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 21:52 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:46 | −0.37 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:33 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:20 | −0.43 | −0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.