BOS beat PIT 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.8, PIT 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Trent Frederic scored at 7:07 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Dan Vladar saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:20 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Brad Marchand, Matt Grzelcyk | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:22 |  PIT | Brandon Tanev from Evan Rodrigues, Kasperi Kapanen | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 7:07 | BOS | Trent Frederic from Jakub Zboril, Patrice Bergeron | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frederic C | 9:06 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jarred Tinordi D | 10:55 | +0.28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 12:37 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 30:16 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 9:12 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:06 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oskar Steen C | 9:13 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:59 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:59 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Steven Kampfer D | 15:13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 23:42 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 13:34 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 22:27 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:54 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.07 | |
| David Krejci C | 15:45 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 21:06 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:51 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:05 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +3.20 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 8:03 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.05 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:43 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 12:31 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:10 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.54 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:24 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 12:00 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:49 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Angello C | 8:38 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:57 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 13:44 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 18:34 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:21 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 3:43 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 28:11 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:16 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 22:42 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:01 | −0.32 | +0.12 | −0.37 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 58:11 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.