VAN beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: J.T. Miller scored at 1:40 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:14 |  VAN | Jayce Hawryluk from Brandon Sutter, Jordie Benn | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:49 | VAN | Tanner Pearson unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 3:52 | OTT | Josh Norris from Tim Stützle, Artem Zub | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 17:50 | OTT | Colin WhitePP from Brady Tkachuk | 2–2 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 1:40 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 10:38 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 19:41 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.15 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 23:30 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.38 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marc Michaelis L | 6:08 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 5:58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 10:47 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 16:38 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:35 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:57 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 20:42 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:51 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:34 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 24:35 | −0.38 | −0.32 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 19:22 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:47 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 13:56 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 20:40 | −0.50 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:07 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 61:40 | +2.37 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.42 | +0.57 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 31:11 | +0.28 | +0.52 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:02 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Clark Bishop C | 7:42 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 11:14 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:04 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 20:34 | +0.01 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 13:18 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 13:04 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 20:00 | −0.07 | +0.26 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:21 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 10:34 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:34 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 19:20 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 17:03 | −0.28 | +0.20 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:00 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 20:37 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.20 | −0.66 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 61:23 | −0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.